In Prashant Kishor's Big Poll Prediction, East, South Warning For Opposition

Less than two weeks before the general election, poll strategissounded a red alert for the Congress and INDIA opposition bloc, warning of improved performances - seats + vote share - Bharatiya Janata Party across six eastern and southern states.

Mr Kishor - who has guided the Congress, the Trinamool, and the Aam Aadmi Party to wins over the Prime Minister's- repeated his warnings of the past - that the ruling party is not invincible.

But he also warned the opposition it is running out of chances to stop the BJP juggernaut, pointing to a string of missed opportunities between 2016 and 2018, as well as the pandemic. "especially if he is a good batter," he told news agency PTI.

rashant Kishor's Warning For Opposition

"They (the BJP) will either be first or second in Telangana... which is a big thing. They will be No 1 in Odisha for sure. Also, you would be surprised. Mr Kishor said, flagging states in each of which the party has lost the most recent Assembly election.

In Tamil Nadu, the party may hit double-digit vote share," he said. For context, the BJP's vote share in the 2019 Lok Sabha election was 3.6 per cent and only 2.6 per cent in the 2021 Assembly poll.

These are parts of the country the BJP has, in the past, struggled for traction, with its hardcore nationalist ideology not quite resonating with voters; in 2014 and 2019 it won only seven and 30 of the 164 seats across Telangana, Odisha, Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Kerala.

The exception was Karnataka, where the BJP won 25 of 28 seats in 2019. That said, many believe the party has been weakened here too after the Congress' big win in last year's Assembly election.

Fast-forward five years, though, and the BJP's persistent outreach and boots-on-the-ground approach in these regions could pay (relatively) big dividends, which will boost the party profile for forthcoming polls even if it does not translate into success for the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

Three of these six states - Bengal, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu - will vote by 2026.

The BJP has made a "major and visible push" to expand in these states, Mr Kishor said, pointing to repeat visits by the Prime Minister and Home Minister Amit Shah, the party's two biggest hitters.

The opposition, Mr Kishor argued, has failed, so far, to make a similar push in the northern and western states - the Hindi heartland - where 239 seats are in play and the BJP is dominant.

Mr Modi has demanded 370+ seats - to ensure the opposition cannot, for a third successive term, challenge his BJP - and over 400 including National Democratic Alliance partners.

A big chunk of this will come from the heartland states, which include Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh, as well as Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and Uttarakhand.

In the heart of the heartland - Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Bihar - there are 149 seats. In 2019 the BJP won 107 and the Congress won three, eight including those won by current allies.

The Congress slipped to Assembly poll defeats in three states last year - Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh - and three others - Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, and Gujarat - the year before.

And Mr Kishor red-flagged this concern in his comments.

"Your fight is in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh... but you are touring Manipur and Meghalaya. Then how you will get success," Mr Kishor said, in comments seen as a swipe at Mr Gandhi and his 'Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra', which toured the north-eastern states this year.

Manipur and Meghalaya have a combined four Lok Sabha seats.